Methodology
Filing Risk Score
Measures filing-risk signals from SEC disclosures, including material events, accounting changes, litigation, liquidity language, and risk-factor movement.
What this score measures
| Area | Current state | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Purpose | Measures filing-risk signals from SEC disclosures, including material events, accounting changes, litigation, liquidity language, and risk-factor movement. | Research context |
| Methodology version | v0.1 | Versioned scoring model |
| Interpretation | Scores are analytical signals | Not investment ratings |
How it is calculated
Weighted sum of event severity, filing recency, unresolved language, accounting flags, and risk-factor deltas. Scores are capped to a 0-100 range.
| Area | Current state | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Material event severity | 30% | Source-backed scoring input |
| Risk-factor and MD&A change | 25% | Source-backed scoring input |
| Accounting and liquidity flags | 20% | Source-backed scoring input |
| Recency and repetition | 15% | Source-backed scoring input |
| Source confidence | 10% | Source-backed scoring input |
Worked example
Sawse maps each recent filing into a driver contribution using form type, recency, and the selected event category.
| Example component | Score effect | Source context |
|---|---|---|
| 10-K annual filing | 18 points | Annual filing recency and filing class |
| 8-K financing or debt event | 18 points | Current-report event category and severity |
| Source document | SEC filing record | Document supporting the scoring input |
| Driver input | Public label |
|---|---|
| Driver 1 | Annual report filing (driver weight: 18) |
| Driver 2 | Recent financing or debt disclosure (driver weight: 18) |
Covered filer with one recent 10-K and one financing 8-K
The example maps to 36 out of 100 before any future risk-factor diffing, accounting flag, or liquidity-language expansion.
Current examples
Examples show covered tickers and public driver labels used by this methodology. They are not a ranking table.
| Ticker | Coverage case | Public driver labels |
|---|---|---|
| MSTR - Strategy Inc | Treasury company with frequent SEC filing and financing-event context. | Quarterly report filing - quarterly report (driver weight: 18); Recent financing or debt disclosure (driver weight: 18) |
| COIN - Coinbase Global | Operating exchange with quarterly reporting and regulatory disclosure context. | Quarterly report filing - quarterly report (driver weight: 18); Recent regulatory disclosure (driver weight: 18) |
| IBIT - iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF | ETF wrapper where fund reporting is handled separately from operating-company filings. | Quarterly report filing - quarterly report (driver weight: 18) |
Score range interpretation
| Area | Current state | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 0-24 | Low current filing-risk signal. | Research-only framing |
| 25-49 | Watchlist signal requiring source review. | Research-only framing |
| 50-74 | Elevated filing-risk signal. | Research-only framing |
| 75-100 | High filing-risk signal requiring explicit source explanation. | Research-only framing |
Limitations
- The score is not a prediction of share-price direction.
- Sparse filers and newly public issuers can have incomplete history.
- Narrative risk-factor changes require source-grounded diffing before public display.