The crypto Fear and Greed index landed at 12 on June 5, deep in extreme-fear territory, and the price tape across this universe made the reading easy to understand. $MSTR lost 31% over the 30 days through June 3. $COIN dropped nearly 20% over the same window. IBIT fell 18.5%. Against that backdrop, $MARA's 18% gain over the same period is the most interesting divergence in the set.

MSTR Carries the Heaviest Damage

Strategy's equity has absorbed a brutal stretch. The 30-day decline of 31% through June 3 leaves the stock sitting below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, with the 20-day average alone more than 30% above the current price level. The short-term trend has flipped to an uptrend on a tactical basis, but the long-term trend classification remains a downtrend. The 52-week high, set in July 2025, now sits more than 70% above where the stock closed on June 3.

The $MSTR 10-K filed February 19, 2026 showed 8 added, 8 removed, and 2 materially changed Item 1A risk-factor candidates compared to the prior year filing. That is a lighter revision count than $COIN or $MARA on the materially changed dimension, but the filing cadence at Strategy remains dense. The company's Form 4 tape through May 12 carries 50 transaction rows in the current set, a volume that reflects the ongoing complexity of insider reporting at a company running large equity and convertible programs.

MARA Breaks From the Pack

$MARA is the clearest outlier. Up 18% over 30 days and 59% over 90 days through June 3, it is the only name in this set with a positive 30-day return. More telling: $MARA is trading above its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, a configuration none of the other tracked names share. Year-to-date, $MARA has gained roughly 55% while $MSTR is down about 19% and $COIN is down about 31%.

The $MARA 10-K filed March 2, 2026 showed 8 added, 8 removed, and 8 materially changed risk-factor candidates versus the prior year. That is a higher materially changed count than $MSTR and matches $COIN, pointing to active rewriting of the disclosure rather than cosmetic updates. The $MARA 10-Q was filed May 11, 2026. Miner economics after the 2024 halving continue to work through the production and cost tape, and $MARA's relative price strength over the past quarter suggests the market is pricing something different into the miner category than into the treasury-holder and exchange categories.

COIN's Revenue Base Meets a Rough Tape

Coinbase reported $1.41 billion in Q1 2026 revenue per the 10-Q filed May 7, 2026. The revenue number is real, but the stock has not found traction. $COIN dropped nearly 20% over 30 days and is down more than 27% year-to-date through June 3, sitting below all three moving averages. The 52-week high from July 2025 is more than 170% above the June 3 close.

The $COIN 10-K filed February 12, 2026 showed 8 added, 8 removed, and 8 materially changed risk-factor candidates, the highest materially changed count in this set alongside $MARA. Eight materially changed candidates in a single annual filing cycle is a meaningful revision load. The $COIN Filing Risk Score reflects that disclosure intensity. After the first introduction of that score, the elevated cadence across both the annual and quarterly filings is the dimension worth tracking, not the revenue line alone.

IBIT and the ETF Wrapper Read

IBIT tracked Bitcoin's move lower with a 30-day decline of 18.5% through June 3, nearly identical in magnitude to $COIN's drawdown. That parallel is worth noting: the spot ETF wrapper and the exchange equity moved in roughly the same direction and magnitude over the past month, even though their underlying economics are completely different. IBIT's realized 30-day volatility of 35.4% annualized closely mirrors Bitcoin's own 30-day realized volatility of 35.2% captured in the June 5 macro snapshot, which is exactly what a well-functioning ETF wrapper should do.

IBIT's 10-K filed February 27, 2026 showed only 1 materially changed risk-factor candidate, far fewer than $MSTR, $COIN, or $MARA. The ETF wrapper's disclosure profile is simpler by design. There are no insider transactions in the IBIT set, which is expected for an ETF structure.

The Macro Frame

The June 5 snapshot captured Bitcoin dominance at 56%, a Bitcoin-led tape where altcoins are losing ground relative to Bitcoin itself. VIX closed at 16.7, a normal equity-volatility regime that does not explain the crypto-specific fear reading. The disconnect between calm equity volatility and extreme crypto fear points to something specific to the digital-asset category rather than a broad risk-off move.

$GLXY, $HOOD, $RIOT, $CLSK, FBTC, and ARKB were quiet in today's records. Pre-market activity across the set on June 5 showed $HOOD with the largest session move at 1.5%, $CLSK at 1.0%, and $GLXY at 0.6%, while $MSTR and $RIOT each showed small negative pre-market moves. FBTC and ARKB moved less than 0.5% in pre-market, tracking Bitcoin's subdued realized volatility.

The category split that matters right now: $MARA is running a different tape than every other name in this set. Whether that divergence holds depends on miner production economics and energy costs, not on the same Bitcoin price sensitivity that drives $MSTR and IBIT. $COIN's revenue base gives it a floor the pure treasury holders lack, but the stock has not rewarded that distinction over the past six months.

Research only. Not investment advice.